Historic U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks: A Geopolitical Primer for Southeast Asia
Summary
Iran and the U.S. are renewing nuclear talks in Oman, echoing the 2013–2015 backchannel efforts that produced the 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
Tensions remain high due to Iran’s advanced nuclear activities, while Washington threatens military action if diplomacy fails.
Oman’s mediation role is historically significant, having facilitated previous negotiations and prisoner exchanges, often preventing regional disputes from escalating further.
Past U.S.-Iran agreements have repeatedly impacted global energy markets, with oil price spikes, war-risk insurance hikes, and sudden supply chain disruptions.
The 2015 JCPOA’s collapse under President Trump’s administration showed how quickly sanctions can reappear, forcing abrupt market exits for global firms.
Current talks carry both opportunities (partial sanctions relief, market openings) and risks (increased conflict, stricter sanctions or military action), underscoring the need for careful compliance and scenario planning.
Businesses should prepare for rapid changes in regulatory and market conditions, drawing on lessons from previous negotiations to manage supply chain vulnerabilities and capture potential first-mover advantages.
