Comprehensive Brief: US-Iran Oman Talks Reshape Middle East Business Risks
Summary
The United States and Iran have resumed direct negotiations in Oman, indicating both sides want to avoid a new Middle East conflict despite lingering mistrust.
Any diplomatic breakthrough could allow Iran to significantly increase oil exports—potentially lowering global energy prices—but a collapse would risk harsher sanctions, maritime disruptions, and price spikes.
Ongoing sanctions compliance remains complex: sudden U.S. policy shifts and potential secondary sanctions expose companies to legal, financial, and reputational hazards.
Regional security tensions, particularly Israel’s readiness to act unilaterally, add volatility, raising insurance costs and potential disruptions in strategic transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
Businesses should adopt integrated scenario planning encompassing energy price volatility, sanctions expansions or relaxations, and heightened security risks.
Mitigation steps include adding war-risk clauses to shipping insurance, strengthening compliance and screening procedures, and diversifying supply chains to reduce Gulf exposure.
Opportunities may arise if partial sanctions relief opens select sectors. However, executives must remain vigilant, track regulatory developments, and build contingency plans to handle abrupt policy changes.
